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Demand forecasting
Forecast at the level your factory actually plans.
A clear weekly view of what each product and customer group is likely to order — including a calibrated range where the history supports it, and human approval before it drives production or purchasing.
Questions answered
Know what demand is doing before you commit the factory.
Foreluma replaces one blanket forecast with a portfolio of forecasts shaped around the behavior of each product and demand segment.
What will each segment order?
Separate retail, wholesale, export, customer groups or named customers instead of hiding different patterns inside one total.
Which products rise in summer, grow steadily or sell only occasionally?
Recognize the pattern of each product instead of forcing one forecasting approach across everything.
Can we trust this forecast?
Test every forecast against weeks where the real answer is already known, then show planners how closely it matched.
What changed since last week?
Refresh with the latest sales and explain meaningful changes, without making the plan jump around for no good reason.
Demand drivers
Explain the forecast, not just the number.
For any product and week, see which signals moved demand above or below its normal pattern, how much each one mattered and where the planner added local knowledge.
EXPLAINED WEEKLY FORECAST1,620 units
+27% vs baselineExpected contribution by driverlowers demand lifts demand
WEEKLY EXPLANATIONThe promotion creates most of the expected lift. The recurring seasonal peak and school return add demand; the holiday and planner adjustment moderate it.Illustrative contribution values. Foreluma tests drivers against each SKU’s own history before using them.
Probability-aware forecasting
See a likely range without giving up one approved plan.
When enough history is available, Foreluma stores P10, P25, P50, P75, P90 and P95 for every future week. P50 remains the central forecast. The surrounding range shows what could plausibly happen and where risk deserves attention.
A range with a reliability checkCoverage and calibration show whether the bands have behaved as expected on known history.
Frozen when the forecast is approvedThe approved point and quantiles become one auditable planning snapshot.
Planning policy stays separateShowing uncertainty does not increase production, purchasing or stock unless a separate advanced planning mode is explicitly enabled.
SKU 1842 · FOOD SERVICEWeekly demand range
ILLUSTRATIVE INTERFACEP10–P90P25–P95 contextApproved P50Actuals
Planning boundaryThe range informs risk. The approved forecast remains the planning contract.
A forecast people can use
More than a line on a chart.
Each weekly number comes with a simple reason, a view of past performance and a clear place for the knowledge your team already has.
01 · Select
Use the best approach for each product.
A seasonal bestseller and an occasional spare part behave differently. Foreluma learns which approach predicts each one most reliably.
02 · Correct
Do not mistake “sold out” for “no demand”.
When shelves were empty, low sales do not tell the whole story. Foreluma spots those weeks so next month is not underplanned.
03 · Approve
Your team adds what the data cannot know.
Review the reason behind a change, add promotions or customer knowledge, adjust where needed and approve the version everyone will use.
The weekly forecasting run
From fresh sales to one approved demand picture.
Every step stays visible, so planners can understand what changed and confidently act on it.
Organize fresh sales
Build a clean weekly history for every product and customer group, including stockouts and calendar events.
Recognize each pattern
Account for seasonality, growth, quieter periods and products that sell only occasionally.
Test against real outcomes
Check how each approach would have performed in past weeks and keep the most reliable answer.
Publish one shared view
Review important changes, add business knowledge and approve what production and purchasing will use.
Why the grain matters
One forecast becomes four operational decisions.
The approved demand picture is the common starting point for production quantities, ingredient purchases, service trade-offs and the short-term line schedule.
ProductionSet weekly batches and quantities by SKU.
ProcurementExplode demand through recipes and supplier rules.
InventoryBalance availability, holding cost and shelf life.
SchedulingSequence the approved lots across lines and shifts.
Forecasting FAQ
Evidence before promises.
We do not quote one universal accuracy number. We show what works on your products.
How do you choose the best forecast?+
Foreluma recreates past planning weeks and asks a simple question: which approach came closest to what customers actually ordered? The strongest, most consistent answer becomes the recommendation for that product.
Can planners override the result?+
Yes. The forecast is a recommendation. Planners can review and adjust values before approving the version that moves into production and purchasing.
Can promotions or price be included?+
Yes. When past and future promotion, price or event information is available, Foreluma tests whether it genuinely improves the forecast before using it.
Use your own history
See what your products are likely to sell.
Bring us a sales export. We will show the forecast, how it would have performed in the past and what it changes in the plan.